RECESSION: A PATH TO RECOVERY

Introduction! In economics, a recession is a negative economic growth for two consecutive quarters. It is also a business cycle contraction which results in a general slowdown in economic activity. Macroeconomic indicators such as GDP (gross domestic product), investment spending, capacity utilization, household income, business profits, and inflation fall, while bankruptcies and the unemployment rate rise. Recessions generally occur when there is a widespread drop in spending (an adverse demand shock). This may be triggered by various events, such as a financial crisis , an external trade shock, an adverse supply shock or the bursting of an economic bubble . Governments usually respond to recessions by adopting expansionary macroeconomic policies , such as increasing money supply , increasing government spending and decreasing taxation. Albeit, an economy in 3-4 consecutive quarters (8-12 months) in recession is said to have spiraled into depression. Before depression sets in, of which we cannot afford to delve into. The good news is, this deep dive enables us to make good this moment to take our rightful place and catch up with other global players. A great teacher we'd never recourse to is HISTORY! In historical anals recession does not translate the end of that system but a sharp reminder such system has been floundering economic/political wise. Also worthy of note is for us as a people to desist the use of lexicons as BREAK UP, Nigeria (I'll not say "never") will not break up. What we need is reforms, reforms, reforms, in current parlance as RESTRUCTURING. States or regions must hence fend for themselves and remit to the center, no more handouts and hands on another's pie. AN IDEA(L) WAY OUT ROOSEVELT'S NEW DEAL Diverse economic routes (road maps) can be plied to recovery. But as a people who claim to have wealth of knowledge in economic history, development modules etc. A moment is set before us to harness the tools and techniques in history by consulting the past how notable countries like Russia and United States of America survived hard times. Besides, we copy or tend to copy much from these nations. This I think is the hour! I charge President Buhari and his cabinet to learn from Franklin D. Roosevelt's famous New Deal Economic Policies of 1933-39. The New Deal was a cursor that steered the US out from the Great Depression. The New Deal was pack of economic programmes to recovery. Government of the day ventured into deliberate reforms; massive construction, heavy government spending on agriculture, bank reforms/loans, employments. In nutshell, the crux of the New Deal was to put money in citizens pocket through employments that later enabled a burgeoned consumer spending and investment by end of 1939. *The New Deal was a series of social liberal programs enacted in the United States between 1933 and 1938, and a few that came later. They included both laws passed by Congress as well as presidential executive orders during the first term (1933–1937) of President Franklin D. Roosevelt. The programs were in response to the Great Depression, and focused on what historians refer to as the "3 Rs," Relief, Recovery, and Reform: relief for the unemployed and poor, recovery of the economy to normal levels, and reform of the financial system to prevent a repeat depression.* By 1939, the Roosevelt administration through shrewd and sheered determination rescued the United States of America from the depression and repositioned her economy back on track. Of which most of Roosevelt's lofty policies lives till date. The present administration of President Buhari can borrow a leaf if not all from the New Deal to revamp and reposition Nigeria back on track. STALINIST FIVE-YEAR PLANS History has it, Russia before and after the Bolsheviks Revolution was a feudal agrarian state. Russia's fortune changed through one man's shrewd and firm determination to position Russia amongst global powers. Note! This is not to say President Buhari needs to be a "man of steel" nor introduce "collectivisation" to turn our fortunes around. The lesson Nigeria could learn is the Five Year Plan of Stalin from 1928 - war time. To fan the embers for an industrialised Russia, Stalin in his inaugural speech in 1923 he said thus: our western neighbours are hundred years ahead of us, we must make good this moment to catch up with them in twenty years. Whoa! Catching up with nations whom are hundred years ahead in twenty years? How's that possible? This is how! The five-year plans were developed by a state planning committee based on the theory of the productive forces that was part of the ideology of the Party for development of the Soviet economy. Fulfilling the plan became the watchword of Soviet bureaucracy. The same method of planning was also adopted by most other communist states , including the People's Republic of China . Nazi Germany emulated the practice in its four-year plan designed to bring Germany to war-readiness. Thence the 1st Five-Year Plan that saw Russia moved from feudal crude agrarian society to a mechanized one from seventh in global index in production to number two next to United States of America. Each five-year plan dealt with all aspects of development: capital goods (those used to produce other goods, like factories and machinery), consumer goods (e.g. chairs, carpets, and irons), agriculture, transportation, communications, health, education, and welfare. However, the emphasis varied from plan to plan, although generally the emphasis was on power (electricity), capital goods, and agriculture. THE MURAL LESSON Without much ado, Nigeria must hone up and brace herself to economic realities through reforms, restructuring, downsizing executive compensation and economic drain before we nose dive deep into depression. Venture more into massive constructions, tax cut, employments into various sectors, ICT development in schools and government parastatals.

©CONCLUSION Having known recession is a period of temporary economic decline during which trade and industrial activity are reduced, generally identified by a fall in GDP in two successive quarters. Technically, Nigeria is having a down turn in her economic fortunes. Why are we in this state in the first instance? Our combined actions and inactions brought us to this state of economic comatose. Beyond all the cacophony of blames, what is the way out? Aren't we tired of repeating what we know is the obvious? We are in economic recession yes- does being in recession means the end of nationhood? Economic recession is a slide in the fortune of a country's income and not necessarily a doom's end. Just like nations ravaged by war, earthquake and other natural resources is economic recession. Recession is when the tools of indices doesn't support your current realities. No economic team would increase the price of crude oil - that is a reality. No government can survive on import economy. We are in recession because of our age long laziness in all fronts. How many states are into Mechanized farming before now? You want to be above recession yet you have no food to feed yourself? Banks are not creating wealth but usurping the functions of the central bank by serving as vault for government agencies. In other climes, banks create small businesses, in Nigeria, banks survive on government patronage. The introduction of the TSA has exposed the inffectual dexterity of our banks as lazy institutions. Show me a business that was created by any Bank and I will drop this post. How can Nigeria's economy not suffer recession when a lawmaker is using N678m as running cost? Narrowing the debate to inactions of the present government is akin to regurgitating same problems and no solutions. You don't produce and you want to sell, you want to eat yet you refused to farm. You want to be amongst top world economies yet you produce nothing. Because oil money was at your dips, you puff and pontificate that you are Africa's largest economy. How did you arrived at being a large economy when even your toothpick is imported? We are a buying economy as almost all our essentials and consumables are imported. We want to be a buoyant economy yet indulge in financial recklessness. How can a lawmaker be entitled to N678m as mere running cost in an economy that is on her knees? Multiply the number of lawmakers who are exposed to these monies and tell me how you expect to be a buoyant economy? That airlines are packing up is a good omen for us to invest in our roads. Because we had access to free money, we abandoned the roads and fly on chattered flights. Necessity they say is the mother of all inventions, where we are today would afford us the opportunity to look inward for solutions of our problems. Bailouts were given to states twice yet the states refused to pay salaries. What did we do? We stay put to blame the President for hunger in the land when twice he has come to the rescue of our states . We enrich our governors because we don't ask for accountability. We are even the problems of ourselves. Charcoal fuel used for cooking is more expensive than kerosene because dollars has gone up. What is the relationship between firewood and dollars? Nothing will change until we are ready to address our fundamental flaws. We need overhaul of our laws where things can be done differently. Until then we are a revolving people in a journey to nowhere. *Lewis Omorodion ~ (Economically Musing) Patrick Inengite CT. MA. Diplomacy